Will The Nation’s Shaky Finances Trump Health Reform Efforts?

Noted health futurist Jeff Goldsmith has a provocative post up on The Health Care Blog focusing on the prospects for health reform.  After peering into his crystal ball he proclaims that health reform is “unlikely to be accomplished next year.”  Why? Well, it’s all about the economy.  He notes that President McCain or Obama will inherit a $500 billion budget deficit.  In addition, credit and mortgage woes will likely obligate the government to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  No one knows what this will cost, but experts are saying that it will exceed the $300 billion taxpayers ponied up during the Savings and Loan crisis of the early 1990s. 

Goldsmith also argues that popular pressure to reduce health costs has dissipated.  Most voters have health insurance.  In addition, with a small percentage of the population facing a serious illness, most Americans are not exposed to rising health expenses. 

However, recent data contradicts his analysis.  For example:

-Four in ten Americans had trouble paying for medical care in 2007

-7% of adults decide whether to marry or divorce based on the quality of their partner’s health insurance

-Some seniors discontinue their medications when faced with paying full price after they hit the Medicare Part D spending limit

-Ongoing economic uncertainty and limited pipelines have prompted some drug firms to sharply increase prescription drug prices

All of these trends indicate that although Americans are not faced with everyday reminders of increasing costs (i.e., a growing food and gas bills), health expenses remain top of mind for many.  If nothing else, these irritations may keep calls for health reform on the front burner longer than Goldsmith predicts.